Digesting The Numbers Graphically

3/10/2022

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Alan

3/11/2022 02:11:47 pm

Is there data on how many non-sexual assault Art 32s & CMs there were vs the sexual assault data over same period?

DON CHRISTENSEN

3/11/2022 03:34:58 pm

Alan in 2010 the services prosecuted 3162 general and special courts. Of those 481 or 15% were adult sex assault/rape cases. In FY20, the services prosecuted 1323 generals and special with 255 or 19% being adult sex cases. The data is available in the Article 146a reports and SAPR reports. I'm not aware of the data on Article 32s, but it may exist.

Philip D. Cave link

3/14/2022 02:10:16 am

And if the 32 data exists, should it not be in the annual reports.

Although, I'm not sure that data would really help much under the current Art. 32 procedure, unless it showed that there were more than a small number "killed" at the 32?

Dwight Sullivan

3/14/2022 09:42:18 am

[Standard disclaimer: I make this comment purely in my individual capacity and it should not be attributed to anyone or anything else.] Wait a second -- the yellow slices represent different things in the two charts. It would also be helpful to depict the relative size of the two pies. Based on a quick review of the numbers, it appears that the FY 2020 pie is more than twice as large as the FY 2010 pie (5,640 unrestricted reports versus 2,579 unrestricted reports). I will try to drill deeper on those numbers this evening.

Brenner

3/14/2022 11:18:36 am

Yes: there is no sex specific data for the earlier year. I also realized the pie percentages are misleading since each smaller slice should be counted in the larger slices. So, only the smallest percentage is correct. The funnel chart illustrates the case pipeline best.

Dwight Sullivan

3/14/2022 01:09:59 pm

[Standard Disclaimer] I suggest changing the color of one of the two yellow slices; otherwise, the casual observer will think that they are depicting the same data set in the two pies.

Richard Stevens link

3/14/2022 01:53:14 pm

Phil, and drilling down farther...
- How many unrestricted sexual assault cases did not result in any adverse action of any type being taken?
- How many court-martial type sexual assault allegations with a willing complainant were not preferred, despite the complainant's willingness to proceed?
- How many preferred cases with a willing complainant were dropped at the Article 32 stage, despite the complainant's willingness to proceed?
- How many referred cases with a willing participant did not reach trial, despite the complainant's willingness to proceed?
I'm sure you have similar experience that there are a variety scenarios not covered. Often, for example, after a referral that arose due to a "complainant-centered investigation," when new evidence, witnesses, or motion rulings occur after referral, complainants drop out of the case and it never ends up in trial. That is just one example. But, if the narrative is: "There are scores of court-martial type sexual assault allegations with willing complainants that are not being preferred or referred because of rogue commanders and convening authorities"...such a claim would have to be backed by actual data, as opposed to interpretations of incomplete or inaccurate data.

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